REGIONAL OUTLOOK

for the horn of africa

Million

Million

11.6

27.0

Severely food insecure

Internally displaced people

8.09

Billion (USD)

Million

4.5

Refugees in the region

Funding requirement in 2017

CONFLICT

Conflict is pervasive - all countries are either in conflict (South Sudan, Somalia and parts of Sudan) or border a country in conflict. Conflict is expected to continue and is at risk of escalating in the coming period especially in South Sudan. Inter-communal conflict is also  expected to rise as competition over scare water and pasture resources intensifies, and election-related conflict remains a possibility in countries that are or are scheduled to go to the polls.

 

 

JAN 2017 - MAR 2017 CONFLICT HOTSPOTS

APR 2017 - JUN 2017 CONFLICT HOTSPOTS

Type of incident

Fatalities

Data not verified yet

Source: Armed conflict location and events database (ACLED)

Late rainfall in May in Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia was insufficient to compensate for the delayed start of the rainy season, resulting in reductions in planting and wilting of crops currently being harvested. The damage to crops this in Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia season is irreversible.

Extensive livestock deaths have been reported in Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia. April field reports from Somalia indicate that, due to distress selling and livestock deaths, households in northern and central areas had lost 40 to 60 per cent of their livestock.

Climate experts have now reduced the probability of El Niño in Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia and the latest ENSO prediction models indicate ENSO-neutral as the most likely condition during summer, with chances for El Niño development at about 35-45%.

climatic shocks

RAINFALL DEFICIT

CLIMATE OUTLOOK

ECONOMIC SHOCKS

In East Africa, cereal prices continued to increase at a fast pace over the first half of 2017 reaching record or near-record highs in most countries due to overall tight supplies and the uncertain prospects for the upcoming 2017 main harvests. High prices of cereals and low livestock prices deteriorated the terms of trade for pastoralists, severely constraining their access to food, exacerbating food insecurity and malnutrition across the region.

FEWS NET REGIONAL PRICE INDICES AND FAO FOOD PRICE INDEX (JAN 2015 - MAY 2017)

food insecurity

HUMANITARIAN IMPACT

DISPLACEMENT

Nearly 640,000 people have sought protection in neighbouring countries since the start of 2017, bringing the number of refugees and asylum seekers in the Horn of Africa region to 4.4 million. The majority of new refugees and asylum seekers are from South Sudan - the fastest growing refugee crisis globally. Currently, 1.9 million South Sudanese refugees reside in neighbouring countries.

More than 3 million people are internally displaced in the region as a result of conflict and drought.

REFUGEE QUARTERLY MOVEMENTS

FOOD INSECURITY

Some 27 million people are now severely food insecure – a 65 per cent increase compared to a year ago (16.4 million in May 2016).

Somalia continues to be at an elevated risk of famine and 1.7 million people in South Sudan are still facing emergency (IPC Level 4) levels of hunger.

Fall Army Worm has now been detected in Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda and South Sudan and could exacerbate food insecurity.

FOOD INSECURITY OUTLOOK

MALNUTRITION

BURUNDI

ETHIOPIA

KENYA

SOMALIA

SOUTH SUDAN

SUDAN

There has been a rapid deterioration of nutrition conditions among children under five years in Kirundi, where the prevalence of Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) exceeds the emergency threshold (>2 per cent).

Between January and April 2017, 110,676 children with severe acute malnutrition (SAM) were admitted into the national Community Management of Acute Malnutrition programme.  303,000 Children are expected to require treatment for SAM in 2017.

Nutrition surveys undertaken in June 2017 in Turkana indicate a deepening nutritional crisis compared to 5 months ago, with 3 of the 4 sub counties reporting acute malnutrition of greater than 30% and severe acute malnutrition ranging from 6-12%.

Severe acute malnutrition (SAM) admissions have increased by more than 50 per cent when compared to 2016. The post-Jilaal 2017 FSNAU survey indicates that the prevalence of global acute malnutrition (GAM) in the livelihood zones of Bay, Bakool, Sool, Sanaag, Bari, Nugal regions, as well as in the Baidoa and Mogadishu IDP camps, is critical (15-30 per cent).

SMART surveys conducted between March and May in Leer, Panyijiar, Duk, Ulang, and Awerial showed ‘Critical’ levels of acute malnutrition (GAM (WHZ)>15%), with a peak of 26.1% in Duk, bordering Extremely Critical classification.

In the Jabel Marra area of Central Darfur, a recent survey showed critical levels of acute malnutrition with Global Acute malnutrition (GAM) rate of 15.7 per cent and severe acute malnutrition (SAM) of 5 per cent.

COMMUNICABLE DISEASES

Simultaneous disease outbreaks – including yellow fever, malaria, cholera/AWD and measles – are further challenging the region’s overstretched healthcare facilities. A spike in malaria cases has been reported in Burundi, South Sudan and eastern DRC in recent months.

COMMUNICABLE DISEASE CASES (JAN-JUN 2017)

 RESPONSE

Total Global Funding Requirements in 2017

Greater Horn of Africa Funding Requirements in 2017

8.09 B

25.3 B

Record unmet financial requirements are putting lives at risk. Refugee appeals are particularly underfunded, which is hampering the response. Overall funding requirements have increased to US$8.09 billion, which is less than 32 per cent funded, with US$5. 49 billion unmet needs. Funding needs are set to rise further with the mid-year revision of humanitarian appeals.

HUMANITARIAN FUNDING REQUIREMENTS

HUMANITARIAN APPEALS AND REFUGEE RESPONSE PLANS

ACCESS IMPEDIMENTS

Humanitarian space continues to be constrained across the region due to insecurity and bureaucratic impediments, especially in Somalia and South Sudan. Between January and April 2017, there were about 213 access incidents in South Sudan with at least eight humanitarian convoys attacked and 15 staff killed.

DIRECT ATTACKS ON AID WORKERS FROM 2013 TO 2017

OCTOBER - DECEMBER 2016

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APRIL - JUNE 2017

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JANUARY - MARCH 2017

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APRIL - JUNE 2016

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JULY - SEPTEMBER 2016

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OCHA 2017