REGIONAL OUTLOOK

for the horn of africa and great lakes region

Million

Million

9.2

22.9

Critically food insecure

Internally displaced people

6.36

Billion (USD)

Million

3.9

Refugees in the region

Funding requirement in 2017

CONFLICT

Conflict is pervasive - all countries are either in conflict (South Sudan, Somalia and parts of Sudan) or border a country in conflict. Insecurity and conflict was also recorded in previously stable buffer states. Conflict is expected to continue and is at risk of escalating especially in South Sudan. Inter-communal conflict is expected to rise as competition over scare water and pasture resource intensifies.

 

 

JULY - SEPTEMBER CONFLICT HOTSPOTS

OCTOBER - DECEMBER CONFLICT HOTSPOTS

Fatalities

Type of incident

climatic shocks

The short rains season in East Africa (October to December) largely failed with levels of rainfall largely comparable to those of 2010, resulting in reduced river flow levels, water scarcity for human and livestock consumption and widespread crop failures. This is the third consecutive year of drought in the region. The drought in the Horn is expected to further deteriorate over the coming months as a delayed start of the rainy season with depressed level of precipitation is forecast for March-May 2017.

RAINFALL DEFICIT

CLIMATE OUTLOOK

ECONOMIC SHOCKS

Food prices are at record highs in areas affected by drought and conflict, which is exacerbating food insecurity and malnutrition across the region. Livestock prices have collapsed, devastating the livelihoods of entire communities. Regional economic growth is expected to reach its lowest levels in two decades.

FEWS NET REGIONAL PRICE INDICES AND FAO FOOD PRICE INDEX (JAN 2010 - DEC 2016)

DISPLACEMENT

There are close to 4 million refugees and asylum seekers in the region – an increase of 20% over the last year. The majority of the newly displaced come from South Sudan. More people have fled South Sudan since July 2016 than Syria in the whole of 2016 and currently 1.5 million South Sudanese refugees reside in neighbouring countries. Some 350,000 people have fled Burundi since April 2015. Displacement from South Sudan is expected to continue if not accelerate – over 24,000 South Sudanese refugees registered in Uganda in the last week of January alone.

REFUGEE QUARTERLY MOVEMENTS

FOOD INSECURITY

Some 22.9 million people currently face crisis levels of food insecurity – a 30% increase compared to a year ago. The number of food insecure in Uganda has quadrupled and doubled in Kenya and Somalia. Famine has been declared for parts of Unity State in South Sudan. The humanitarian situation in Somalia has deteriorated rapidly, where famine could soon be a reality in some of the worst drought-affected areas.

FOOD INSECURITY OUTLOOK

MALNUTRITION

BURUNDI

ETHIOPIA

KENYA

SOMALIA

SOUTH SUDAN

SUDAN

There has been a rapid deterioration of nutrition conditions among children under five years in Kirundi, where the prevalence of Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) exceeds the emergency threshold (>2 per cent).

Some 2.7 million children and pregnant and lactating mothers require supplementary feeding, and 300,000 children between 6-59 months old are targeted for the treatment for severe acute malnutrition in 2017.

The latest nutrition surveys show that three sub-counties (Turkana North, North Hor (Marsabit), Mandera) have GAM rates above 30%. Six sub-counties (Turkana Central, Turkana South, Turkana West, Laisamis, East Pokot (Baringo), Isiolo) have GAM rates between 15% and 29%.

Malnutrition levels are rising in Somalia, with the Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) prevalence above the critical (15%) threshold in 13 out of 27 rural and displaced groups. There are 363,000 acutely malnourished children, of which 71,000 are severely malnourished, (point prevalence) while the overall need and/or burden is estimated to be close to one million acutely malnourished children with 185,000 being severely malnourished.

IAcute malnutrition remains a major public health emergency in South Sudan. Out of 23 counties with recent data, 14 have Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) at or above 15%. GAM of above 30% is observed in Leer and Panyijiar while Mayendit had GAM levels of 27.3%.

Two million Sudanese children under 5 are acutely malnourished and 550,000 of these children are severely malnourished. Within the African continent, 13% of all children suffering from severe acute malnutrition (SAM) are located in the Sudan

COMMUNICABLE DISEASES

Simultaneous disease outbreaks – including yellow fever, malaria, cholera and measles – are further challenging the region’s overstretched healthcare facilities. A spike in malaria cases has been reported in Burundi, South Sudan and eastern DRC in recent months and a new spike in cholera cases is a real possibility as drought means that many people are surviving on dirty, germ-infested water.

COMMUNICABLE DISEASE OUTLOOK

 RESPONSE

Greater Horn of Africa Funding Requirements in 2017

6.8 B

Total Global Funding Requirements in 2017

25.3 B

In 2016, humanitarian appeals for the Horn of Africa were on average 65 per cent funded, but significant shortfalls hindered the ability to provide lifesaving assistance. Regional Refugee Appeals were particularly underfunded. Despite the Ugandan Government’s progressive and supportive policies towards refugees, US$62 million is urgently needed for food assistance for South Sudanese refugees from December 2016 to May 2017. WFP has also been forced made to cut food rations for refugees in Kenya.

HUMANITARIAN RESPONSE PLANS AND FUNDING STATUS

HUMANITARIAN FUNDING REQUIREMENTS

HUMANITARIAN APPEALS AND REFUGEE RESPONSE PLANS

ACCESS IMPEDIMENTS

The ability to respond to growing humanitarian needs across the region was hindered by rising insecurity, bureaucratic impediments and poor infrastructure. Over 300 access incidents were recorded during the last quarter of 2016 reporting period. Humanitarian actors did deliver services in insecure areas, but at an unsustainable financial and human cost. The operational environment is expected to remain fragile in the coming months, particularly in South Sudan and Somalia.

DIRECT ATTACKS ON AID WORKERS FROM 2013 TO 2016

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OCHA 2017